Use Predictive Churn

Predictive churn analyzes your audience for users that exhibit behaviors indicating they are likely to become inactive, and tags the users as High, Medium, or Low Risk. Use predictive churn to identify users who are likely to leave your app, and take steps to retain them.

Enable Predictive Churn


Predictive churn is an add-on feature. Contact Airship Sales to enable predictive features for your account.

Predictive churn supports your production projects only and updates weekly on Sundays. Tags are assigned the first Sunday after enabling predictive churn.

  1. Open your messaging project from the dashboard, then go to Settings » Configuration » Predictive AI.
  2. Toggle Predictive Churn to ON.

Automate Messages by Predictive Churn Group

Automation is a set of conditions that your audience must meet before they receive a message. You can trigger message based on a user's predictive churn status. For example, you might set up an automation to send users a special offer when their predictive churn risk changes to High, helping retain users at risk of leaving your audience.

In the Setup step of the Automation composer:

  1. Select the Predicted to Churn trigger.
  2. Select a risk profile.
    • High risk: Users most likely to become inactive.
    • Medium risk: Users who exhibit signs of potentially becoming inactive.
    • Low risk: Users least likely to become inactive.
  3. Choose whether to apply the trigger when the risk is added or removed.

Send a Message to a Predictive Churn Audience

In the Audience step of the Message or A/B Test composers:

  1. Select the channels to include in your audience.
  2. Select Target Specific Users.
  3. Under Explore, click Predicted to Churn and select the risk likelihood of the users you want to target.

Send an In-App Automation to a Predictive Churn Audience

In the Audience step of the In-App Automation composer:

  1. Select Target Specific Users.
  2. Click the Predicted to Churn trigger.
  3. Select a risk group.
    • High risk: Users most likely to become inactive.
    • Medium risk: Users who exhibit signs of potentially becoming inactive.
    • Low risk: Users least likely to become inactive.

Select a Predictive Churn Audience Using the API

Predictive Churn is represented as a tag group called ua_churn_prediction, with tags for low, medium, and high risk. You can use the audience tag selector to target an audience at risk of churning.

For example, the following is a notification to users of all device types whose current churn prediction is medium:

POST /api/push HTTP/1.1
Authorization: Basic <master authorization string>
Content-Type: application/json
Accept: application/vnd.urbanairship+json; version=3;

   "audience": {
      "tag": "medium",
      "group": "ua_churn_prediction"
   "notification": {
        "alert": "me·di·um, n., an agency or means of doing something."
    "device_types": [

Include a Predictive Churn Risk Group in an Audience Segment

Segments are reusable audience selection criteria. You can use segments when targeting an audience instead of recreating your audience selections every time you send a message. You can include a predictive churn risk profile in your segments.

Follow the steps in the Segments Builder Tutorial to create a new segment, and include a Predicted to Churn tag:

  1. Click Select a tag and choose Predicted to Churn
  2. Click the high, medium, or low risk group.
  3. Complete the steps in the Segments Builder tutorial.

Observe Churn Prediction in Performance Analytics

If you are a Performance Analytics customer, the Predictive dashboard helps you track churn risk factors over time. The Predictive dashboard provides a view into Predictive Churn risk groups, distribution of users across risk groups, and the performance of churn mitigation tactics.

Predictive tags update every Sunday, and reports default to the most recent update.

Go to the Predictive dashboard:

  1. Open a messaging project from the dashboard.
  2. Navigate to Reports » Performance Analytics.
  3. Click Predictive.

Learn more:

Predictive Churn Events

Predictive Churn is a tag applied to users. Therefore, changes in predictive churn status are represented as TAG_CHANGE events. See the Data Streaming API Reference for details on Real-Time Data Streaming tag change events.

Tag changes return both the change in tag — add or remove — and the current tag. The current tag is the end result of the tag change. There are three scenarios for tag change events:

  • Add prediction: Adds a new predictive churn tag to a channel that did not previously have a prediction. Not all devices begin with a churn prediction; churn prediction is assigned to active users when the predictive churn model runs (weekly on Sundays).
  • Prediction change: Replaces the prediction on a channel.
  • Remove prediction: Removes the prediction from a channel, typically when a channel becomes inactive.

The following is an example change in churn prediction status:

   "id": "e1559cd7-af96-45ab-bb74-a22cd99a01d5",
   "offset": "1422600",
   "occurred": "2017-01-15T09:26:30.362Z",
   "processed": "2017-01-15T16:15:30.048Z",
   "device": {
      "android_channel": "d5ec96e3-5ced-47b0-a4dd-1b2b6bda442e",
      "named_user_id": "",
      "attributes": {
         "locale_variant": "",
         "app_version": "312",
         "device_model": "LG-H811",
         "connection_type": "WIFI",
         "app_package_name": "",
         "iana_timezone": "America/Los_Angeles",
         "push_opt_in": "true",
         "locale_country_code": "US",
         "device_os": "6.0",
         "locale_timezone": "-28800",
         "carrier": "T-Mobile",
         "locale_language_code": "en",
         "location_enabled": "true",
         "background_push_enabled": "true",
         "ua_sdk_version": "6.1.2",
         "location_permission": "ALWAYS_ALLOWED"
   "body": {
      "add": {
         "ua_churn_prediction": [
      "remove": {
         "ua_churn_prediction": [
      "current": {
         "ua_churn_prediction": [
   "type": "TAG_CHANGE"